What is the adult autistic population in the US?

With the focus of everything autism being on children, an interesting question always arises. Given that autistic children grow up and become autistic adults, what is the autistic adult population of a country? What is the autistic adult population of the US? As there is no official government number, let’s try to figure it out. Here is some information that may help provide an estimate.

According to the CDC, about 1 in 36 children were diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in 2020 in the US. This was based on tracking of 8-year-old children across 11 sites within the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network. The ADDM is an active surveillance program that provides estimates of the prevalence autism among children aged 8 years.

There are differing estimates on how many adults may be autistic, as it has become more recognized and diagnosed over time. Some estimates range from over 3 million to 5 million autistic adults in the US. One model developed in 2015 by researchers at Drexel University estimated about 3.5 million US adults aged 18-64 may be autistic. This was based on ADDM Network ASD prevalence data and US census population estimates.

Another study in 2020 estimated that 2.21% of US adults are autistic. If that percentage is applied to the current 18+ US population of around 258 million, the estimate would be around 5.7 million autistic adults as of 2023.

However, there are limitations with estimates. Tracking exact numbers of autistic adults is difficult given differences in diagnostic criteria over time, availability of diagnostic services, and differences in prevalence by age group. Whilst there is no definitive count, a reasonable estimate based on available data could be that there are currently somewhere between 3 to 6 million autistic adults in the United States. But more standardized tracking and research would be needed to have more reliable figures.

So what?

3 million people is the population of Chicago, Ill. 5 million people is the population of metropolitan Phoenix, Az. 6 million people is the population of metropolitan Philadelphia, PA. When viewed in this way, that’s a lot of people. There are more autistic adults than people that live in metropolitan San Diego, CA, or San Antonio, Tx.

The problem is, we’re spread out all over the country. It’s hard for the federal government to direct help across states, counties, and cities.

Some have floated the idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) for autistic people. Contrary to the common argument, UBI isn’t some new socialist scheme. It’s roots are found in antiquity in pre-Christian Rome. Here’s what it might look like.

Okay, let's make some assumptions and estimates here to determine the potential annual cost of providing a $1500 per month universal basic income (UBI) payment to autistic adults in the United States:

Based on our estimates, let's assume there are currently about 5 million autistic adults aged 18+ in the US. A $1500 per month UBI payment to each of those 5 million adults would amount to $1500 x 12 months = $18,000 per year.

Multiplying the 5 million autistic adults by the $18,000 annual payment per person equals a total annual cost of: 5,000,000 autistic adults x $18,000 per year = $90 billion

$90 billion?! That’s a lot of money. Where would that possibly come from?

Here’s an idea. Let’s look at the US “defense” budget. That’s $816.7 billion for fiscal 2023. Thus, $90 billion represents approximately 11.029% of $816.7 billion. Do you think we could reduce “defense” spending by ~11%? Of course we can.

For some, $18,000 per year wouldn’t mean a thing. After all, many autistic adults are gainfully employed. However, others are living in poverty and $18,000 per year would mean all the difference in the world. It would be hard to set up a “means test” or some other way to restrict enrollment. So I wouldn’t. If you’re autistic, chances are that you’re affected by the “autism tax” and you expending way more than $18000 per year to accommodate yourself in light of the tax.

It’s just a thought. What do you think? What would you do with UBI if you received it? How would it impact your life? Let me know in the comments below.