What Are the Odds? The Testing Game: Students Lose, the Corporations Win

Are you ready for the deal of a lifetime? Parents, students, and teachers have been sold on the idea that the PSAT is the magic ticket to college success. Promoted as the gateway to scholarships, the key to SAT preparation, and the ultimate measure of academic readiness, the PSAT has become a near-mandatory ritual for students across the US. School districts, like mine, spend hundreds of thousands of dollars annually to ensure all students have access to this supposedly life-changing opportunity. But here’s the truth: the PSAT is far more about padding the College Board’s wallet than it is about helping your student’s future.

At first glance, the promises of the PSAT seem appealing. Who wouldn’t want a shot at the prestigious National Merit® Scholarship or a leg up on the SAT? But beneath the surface, the reality is far less glamorous. The odds of a student winning a National Merit Scholarship are so slim they border on laughable, and the claims that the PSAT helps students prepare for the SAT are flimsy at best. Instead of providing meaningful support for students, the test serves as a profit engine for the College Board, a private corporation that reaps tens of millions in test fees and student data sales each year.

The PSAT’s mythology thrives because it plays on our collective anxiety about college admissions. Parents are desperate to give their children every advantage, while schools feel pressure to show they’re preparing students for higher education. But when you pull back the curtain, the PSAT offers little more than a score report and a lot of unfulfilled promises. It’s time to question whether this test is truly worth the hype—or if it’s just another way the system exploits students and schools for profit.

Your Student’s Odds of Winning

The headline promise of the PSAT is that it makes your student eligible for the prestigious National Merit® Scholarship. Sounds great, doesn’t it? Who wouldn’t be drawn to the idea of a scholarship programme that rewards academic excellence and opens doors to prestigious colleges? But before you get too excited, let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

Each year, about 1.5 million students take the PSAT, all hoping for a shot at being recognised as a top scholar. Of those, roughly 16,000 earn the title of Semifinalist, a distinction that might look good on a résumé but doesn’t come with any monetary reward. And then, the pool narrows even further: only 2,500 students actually receive the coveted $2,500 National Merit® Scholarship. Do the math, and the odds of your student winning the prize are about 1 in 600. For comparison, those odds are slightly better than being struck by lightning but much worse than finding a decent parking spot on a crowded Los Angeles street.

The situation is even bleaker if your family doesn’t work for one of the corporate sponsors funding other types of National Merit awards. Many of these scholarships are reserved for children of employees, meaning a significant portion of awards are inaccessible to most students. If your family doesn’t meet these specific criteria, the odds shrink even further, leaving the National Merit Scholarship feeling more like a lottery than a merit-based programme.

What’s worse is the stress and pressure that accompanies this process. Students spend hours preparing for a test that offers little real benefit to most participants, all whilst holding onto the slim hope of winning what amounts to a jackpot. It’s a high-stakes gamble with low-stakes rewards for nearly all involved—except, of course, the College Board, which wins every single time.

Meanwhile, the College Board is Winning Big

Whilst your student’s odds of success are dismal, the College Board enjoys a guaranteed jackpot. Every year, the organisation rakes in an estimated $70 million from PSAT fees and data sales, making it one of the most lucrative “education initiatives” in the country. Unlike students, who might walk away with little more than a score report, the College Board always wins.

And how do they achieve such staggering profits? It’s not just about the $18 fee per test. A significant chunk of revenue comes from selling your student’s data. Yes, you read that right: data sales. When students sign up for the PSAT, most are encouraged to opt into the College Board’s Student Search Service. This allows the organisation to sell their personal information—names, addresses, academic interests, and test scores—to colleges for about $0.47 per student. Multiply that by millions of students, and you have a tidy little revenue stream. Meanwhile, your child frets over their score, unaware that they’re being treated like “data cattle” in this profitable exchange.

So, what does your student actually get for participating in this system? Not much. At best, they receive a generic score report, which doesn’t provide the detailed feedback needed to make meaningful academic improvements. Then there’s the slim chance of a scholarship, which, as we’ve already discussed, is about as likely as finding a needle in a haystack. Finally, there’s the dubious claim that the PSAT is useful as “practice for the SAT.” Research suggests otherwise: the overlap between the two tests is minimal, and the PSAT offers no targeted insights that genuinely prepare students for the SAT’s unique challenges.

What’s left, then? A lot of hype, a great deal of stress, and an immense profit for the College Board. This private corporation has mastered the art of selling a dream that rarely delivers, all while positioning itself as an indispensable part of the education system. For students and schools, the PSAT is little more than a costly ritual. For the College Board, it’s a guaranteed windfall—year after year, test after test.

Better Odds Elsewhere

If the PSAT is such a bad bet, what’s a student to do? Fortunately, there are plenty of alternatives with much better odds of success. Whilst the College Board would have you believe the PSAT is an essential step on the road to scholarships, the truth is there are far more practical and attainable ways for students to secure financial support for college. Here are a few options worth considering:

Local Scholarships
Community groups, credit unions, and local foundations frequently offer small scholarships that are much easier to win than the National Merit® Scholarship. These awards often have straightforward application processes and focus on local students, reducing the competition significantly. Whether it’s a $500 scholarship from the Rotary Club or a $2,000 award from a regional organisation, these opportunities are readily accessible. Odds of winning? Depending on the size of the applicant pool, they’re typically 1 in 20 to 1 in 100—a dramatic improvement over the PSAT’s lottery-like chances.

Essay Contests
For students who enjoy writing, essay contests can be a goldmine. Many contests offer cash prizes ranging from a few hundred dollars to several thousand, and the topics often allow students to showcase their personal experiences or creative thinking. Even better, these contests are a double win: not only do they offer financial rewards, but the experience can bolster college applications. Odds of winning? Often 1 in 50 or better, especially for contests targeted at specific demographics or regions.

Crowdfunding
In the age of social media, platforms like GoFundMe have become powerful tools for raising money. Students with compelling stories can tap into their communities for support, often exceeding their financial goals in a matter of weeks. Whether it’s a fundraiser for tuition, books, or housing, crowdfunding offers a direct and immediate path to financial help. And unlike the PSAT, there’s no test anxiety involved. With the right pitch and a supportive network, the odds of raising $2,500 are often much higher than any traditional scholarship.

Part-Time Work
Let’s not overlook the tried-and-true option: getting a job. A weekend position at minimum wage can net $2,500 in about six months. It’s not glamorous, but it’s guaranteed money with no essay, no test, and no waiting for results. Plus, it teaches valuable life skills like time management and responsibility—benefits that far outweigh anything a PSAT score report could offer.

Ultimately, students don’t need to pin their hopes on the PSAT when these alternatives exist. Instead of sweating over bubble sheets and chasing improbable scholarships, students can focus on these tangible, attainable ways to secure their future. It’s time to leave the mythology of the PSAT behind and start betting on strategies that actually pay off.

A Tale of Two Winners

Here’s the real “what are the odds” question: Who wins bigger—your student or the College Board? Let’s break it down. The odds of your student winning the $2,500 National Merit® Scholarship are a dismal 1 in 600. Meanwhile, the odds of the College Board walking away with a guaranteed payday? 100%. It’s the only sure bet in the entire PSAT game.

Think about it: Whether it’s the $18 test fee per student or the revenue from selling student data, the College Board profits every time a student fills in their first bubble. Across a district like mine, where thousands of students in grades 8 through 11 take the PSAT, the costs add up fast. My district alone spends roughly $700,000 annually to administer this test. That’s $700,000 flowing straight into the College Board’s coffers, with little to show for it except a pile of vague score reports and a handful of long-shot scholarship hopes.

Imagine if that money were used differently. Instead of paying for PSAT fees, districts could redirect those funds toward small scholarships for every graduate heading to college. No test anxiety, no multiple-choice questions—just direct, tangible support for students. At $700,000 per year, my district could provide meaningful aid to every student who completes high school and pursues higher education. The impact would be immediate and far more equitable than the slim odds offered by the PSAT.

Ultimately, the tale of two winners is clear: Whilst students gamble with long odds for a chance at $2,500, the College Board enjoys a sure thing, year after year. It’s time to question whether this game is worth playing—or if we should stop funding a system designed for corporate profit rather than student success.

The Bottom Line

Parents, teachers, students—let’s be real: the PSAT isn’t the golden ticket it’s made out to be. For the College Board, it’s a cash cow, a guaranteed revenue stream that turns test-takers into data points and districts into willing payers. But for your student? It’s more stress, more hype, and barely a sliver of real opportunity.

The next time someone calls the PSAT “essential,” take a moment to do the math. The odds of a student walking away with a $2,500 scholarship are slim—1 in 600 slim. Meanwhile, the odds of the College Board profiting are 100%. Whether it’s through the millions in test fees or the sale of student data to colleges, the College Board wins every single time. It’s a business, not a benevolent force for educational equity, and its priorities are clear: profits first, students second.

So, what’s the alternative? Instead of funneling money into this corporate machine, let’s shift our focus to opportunities that actually set students up for success. Scholarships from local organisations, part-time work, essay contests, and even crowdfunding campaigns offer far better odds and real-world benefits. These strategies may not come with the prestige of a national programme, but they deliver tangible results—without the need for bubble sheets or the false promises of a multimillion-dollar corporation.

In the end, the PSAT isn’t about preparing students for success. It’s about perpetuating a system that treats education as a commodity and students as consumers. It’s time to stop buying into the myth and start advocating for a system that truly serves students and their futures. Because when it comes to the PSAT, the only sure winner is the College Board—and our students deserve a much better deal.

Final thoughts …

Each year, students in my district are bombarded with tests. From the PSAT to the SAT, AP exams, and thrice-yearly iReady assessments, the testing calendar is relentless. Add in the SBAC, IABs, and FIABs, plus a mandatory 90 minutes per week on iReady skill paths or IXL, and you have a snapshot of the modern American student’s experience. These aren’t even curriculum-based assessments like unit tests, midterms, or finals; they’re corporate-driven evaluations with tenuous links to what’s taught in the classroom.

The result? Testing fatigue. Students are exhausted by the endless barrage of assessments, most of which feel disconnected from their actual learning or goals. A growing movement on social media highlights this frustration: students are “quiet quitting” these tests by selecting random answers, marking all the Ds, or typing nonsense into constructed response boxes. It’s a form of passive resistance—a quiet rebellion against a system that doesn’t seem to prioritise their needs or achievements.

Unfortunately, this response plays directly into the hands of powerful political and corporate interests. The dismal data generated by these disengaged students is weaponised by the proponents of Agenda47 and its backers. It becomes “evidence” that public schools are failing, fuelling the argument to dismantle them and redirect taxpayer funds to private charter corporations. These corporations, it’s worth noting, often replicate the same corporate testing culture, perpetuating the cycle under a different name.

This is the grim reality of education in the United States today. We’ve allowed corporations to dictate the terms of assessment, reducing students to data points and teachers to deliverers of test-prep material. It’s no wonder students are disengaging—they’re being treated as pawns in a system designed for profit, not learning.

It’s time to reimagine what assessment can and should be. Instead of relying on corporate tools to measure learning, we should focus on meaningful, curriculum-based evaluations that honour students’ effort and progress. Testing should be a tool to help students grow, not a weapon to undermine public education. Until we shift this paradigm, we’ll continue to see the consequences—testing fatigue, disengagement, and a public school system under siege.